{
 "about": "Homes and students: the town\u2019s single-family parcel count and the schools\u2019 headcount, FY1994 to FY2026, side by side \u2014 the town has added homes every year and the schools have not gained children.",
 "conclusions": [
  {
   "basis": "Single-family parcels from the DLS average tax bill file, Lunenburg rows, FY1994\u2013FY2026; enrolment from `dese_enrollment`, district rows, total_cnt. DLS\u2019s fiscal year is the tax year and DESE\u2019s is the school year; both FY-labels describe the same autumn and are set side by side on that basis.",
   "bearing": "sizes",
   "claim": "773 more single-family homes since FY1994, and 319 fewer students than the FY2003 peak.",
   "detail": "The town has been building. The schools have been shrinking. Both are true in the same years, from two state files that count two different things. Single-family parcels went from 2,872 in FY1994 to 3,645 in FY2026, up 26.9%, and fell in 0 of the 26 year-to-year steps the record holds. Enrolment peaked at 1,887 in FY2003 and stands at 1,568, down 16.9%. The two lines cross the page in opposite directions.",
   "figure": "added",
   "figures": {
    "added": {
     "text": "773",
     "unit": "more single-family homes, FY1994 to FY2026",
     "value": 773
    },
    "fell": {
     "text": "0",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 0
    },
    "fy_first": {
     "text": "FY1994",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1994
    },
    "fy_last": {
     "text": "FY2026",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2026
    },
    "fy_peak": {
     "text": "FY2003",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2003
    },
    "homes_first": {
     "text": "2,872",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2872
    },
    "homes_last": {
     "text": "3,645",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 3645
    },
    "homes_pct": {
     "text": "26.9%",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 0.26915041782729804
    },
    "lost": {
     "text": "319",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 319
    },
    "lost_pct": {
     "text": "16.9%",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 0.169051404345522
    },
    "peak": {
     "text": "1,887",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1887
    },
    "steps": {
     "text": "26",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 26
    },
    "students_last": {
     "text": "1,568",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1568
    }
   },
   "id": "more-homes-fewer-students",
   "kind": "measured",
   "literals": [],
   "not_shown": "WHY. Fewer children per home, older households, children choicing out, new homes bought by households without children \u2014 this pair of series separates none of them. Nor does the homes count include condominiums or apartments; it is single-family parcels only.",
   "see": [
    {
     "label": "Who is in the schools, FY1994 to today",
     "slug": "/who-is-in-the-schools"
    },
    {
     "label": "Who lives here",
     "slug": "/lunenburg-by-the-numbers"
    }
   ],
   "so_what": "Homes rose in every one of the 26 steps in the record. Enrolment has not followed them."
  },
  {
   "basis": "The two series above, divided, year by year.",
   "bearing": "sizes",
   "claim": "43.0 students for every hundred single-family homes in FY2026, against 61.2 in FY1994.",
   "detail": "Dividing one series by the other gives students per hundred homes: 61.2 in FY1994, 43.0 in FY2026, a fall of 29.7%. It is a ratio of two counts and not a household survey: it does not say which homes hold children.",
   "figure": "ratio_last",
   "figures": {
    "fy_first": {
     "text": "FY1994",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1994
    },
    "fy_last": {
     "text": "FY2026",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2026
    },
    "ratio_drop": {
     "text": "29.7%",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 0.29738562091503273
    },
    "ratio_first": {
     "text": "61.2",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 61.2
    },
    "ratio_last": {
     "text": "43.0",
     "unit": "students per 100 single-family homes, FY2026",
     "value": 43.0
    }
   },
   "id": "students-per-hundred-homes",
   "kind": "measured",
   "literals": [],
   "not_shown": "Children per household. The Census publishes households with a child under 18 only as a five-year sample (on /lunenburg-by-the-numbers), so the ratio here is homes to students, not families to children.",
   "see": [
    {
     "label": "A third of homes have a child under 18 \u2014 the five-year sample",
     "slug": "/lunenburg-by-the-numbers"
    }
   ],
   "so_what": "Fewer school-age children for each home than the town had. The fact under every \u201cgrowth\u201d argument."
  },
  {
   "basis": "The same two series, the latest six fiscal years.",
   "bearing": "sizes",
   "claim": "In the last five years: +87 single-family homes, \u221225 students.",
   "detail": "FY2021 to FY2026: single-family parcels 3,558 to 3,645, enrolment 1,593 to 1,568. A new home in Lunenburg has not, on this record, meant a new pupil.",
   "figure": "homes5",
   "figures": {
    "fy_w0": {
     "text": "FY2021",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2021
    },
    "fy_w1": {
     "text": "FY2026",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 2026
    },
    "h0": {
     "text": "3,558",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 3558
    },
    "h1": {
     "text": "3,645",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 3645
    },
    "homes5": {
     "text": "+87",
     "unit": "single-family homes, FY2021 to FY2026",
     "value": 87
    },
    "s0": {
     "text": "1,593",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1593
    },
    "s1": {
     "text": "1,568",
     "unit": "",
     "value": 1568
    },
    "students5": {
     "text": "\u221225",
     "unit": "",
     "value": -25
    }
   },
   "id": "the-last-five-years",
   "kind": "measured",
   "literals": [],
   "not_shown": "Whether the homes added were bought by families with children who then enrolled elsewhere \u2014 Monty Tech, school choice, private school \u2014 which would leave enrolment flat with more children in town. /where-students-go-instead counts residents educated elsewhere and is the place to look.",
   "see": [
    {
     "label": "Where Lunenburg\u2019s children go instead",
     "slug": "/where-students-go-instead"
    },
    {
     "label": "What commercial growth would have to look like",
     "slug": "/growth"
    }
   ],
   "so_what": "Building does not read through to enrolment on any horizon this record shows \u2014 five years or twenty."
  }
 ],
 "first_fy": 1994,
 "generated_by": "scripts/build_homes_and_students.py",
 "grain": "Two COUNTS on two state files: single-family parcels as DLS reports them each fiscal year, and children enrolled in the district on 1 October. Neither is a dollar figure; neither says who lives in a home.",
 "last_fy": 2026,
 "not_established": [
  "Why enrolment does not follow homes: children per household, the age of households moving in, and children educated outside the district are three explanations this pair of counts cannot separate.",
  "How many homes of other kinds \u2014 condominiums, apartments, two-family \u2014 were added; the DLS series is single-family parcels only.",
  "School-age children per household by year. The Census gives it as a five-year sample; the assessors\u2019 records carry no ages."
 ],
 "series": [
  {
   "fy": 1994,
   "homes": 2872,
   "students": 1758,
   "students_per_100_homes": 61.2
  },
  {
   "fy": 1999,
   "homes": 3072,
   "students": 1830,
   "students_per_100_homes": 59.6
  },
  {
   "fy": 2002,
   "homes": 3201,
   "students": 1851,
   "students_per_100_homes": 57.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2003,
   "homes": 3249,
   "students": 1887,
   "students_per_100_homes": 58.1
  },
  {
   "fy": 2004,
   "homes": 3283,
   "students": 1830,
   "students_per_100_homes": 55.7
  },
  {
   "fy": 2005,
   "homes": 3325,
   "students": 1822,
   "students_per_100_homes": 54.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2006,
   "homes": 3362,
   "students": 1836,
   "students_per_100_homes": 54.6
  },
  {
   "fy": 2007,
   "homes": 3389,
   "students": 1844,
   "students_per_100_homes": 54.4
  },
  {
   "fy": 2008,
   "homes": 3389,
   "students": 1824,
   "students_per_100_homes": 53.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2009,
   "homes": 3413,
   "students": 1739,
   "students_per_100_homes": 51.0
  },
  {
   "fy": 2010,
   "homes": 3418,
   "students": 1702,
   "students_per_100_homes": 49.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2011,
   "homes": 3419,
   "students": 1650,
   "students_per_100_homes": 48.3
  },
  {
   "fy": 2012,
   "homes": 3426,
   "students": 1637,
   "students_per_100_homes": 47.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2013,
   "homes": 3433,
   "students": 1587,
   "students_per_100_homes": 46.2
  },
  {
   "fy": 2014,
   "homes": 3443,
   "students": 1564,
   "students_per_100_homes": 45.4
  },
  {
   "fy": 2015,
   "homes": 3451,
   "students": 1557,
   "students_per_100_homes": 45.1
  },
  {
   "fy": 2016,
   "homes": 3472,
   "students": 1567,
   "students_per_100_homes": 45.1
  },
  {
   "fy": 2017,
   "homes": 3486,
   "students": 1613,
   "students_per_100_homes": 46.3
  },
  {
   "fy": 2018,
   "homes": 3514,
   "students": 1641,
   "students_per_100_homes": 46.7
  },
  {
   "fy": 2019,
   "homes": 3530,
   "students": 1649,
   "students_per_100_homes": 46.7
  },
  {
   "fy": 2020,
   "homes": 3543,
   "students": 1641,
   "students_per_100_homes": 46.3
  },
  {
   "fy": 2021,
   "homes": 3558,
   "students": 1593,
   "students_per_100_homes": 44.8
  },
  {
   "fy": 2022,
   "homes": 3583,
   "students": 1597,
   "students_per_100_homes": 44.6
  },
  {
   "fy": 2023,
   "homes": 3593,
   "students": 1562,
   "students_per_100_homes": 43.5
  },
  {
   "fy": 2024,
   "homes": 3625,
   "students": 1580,
   "students_per_100_homes": 43.6
  },
  {
   "fy": 2025,
   "homes": 3635,
   "students": 1563,
   "students_per_100_homes": 43.0
  },
  {
   "fy": 2026,
   "homes": 3645,
   "students": 1568,
   "students_per_100_homes": 43.0
  }
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "bytes": 40358,
   "docs_url": "/docs/state-dls/AvgSingleFamTaxBill.xlsx",
   "note": "Every town\u2019s single-family parcels by fiscal year, exported from the DLS Gateway by script. The parcel count is the homes series here.",
   "path": "sources/state-dls/AvgSingleFamTaxBill.xlsx",
   "publisher": "Massachusetts DOR, Division of Local Services",
   "sha256": "529481c165e85504b22d93f83487d0013b745c446f66b8484bc7dc522ff5b73b",
   "table": "Average Single-Family Tax Bill, FY1988\u2013FY2026",
   "url": "https://dls-gw.dor.state.ma.us/reports/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=AverageSingleTaxBill.SingleFamTaxBill_wRange&rdReportFormat=NativeExcel&rdExportTableID=tblSinglefamtaxbill&rdExportFilename=AvgSingleFamTaxBill&rdShowGridlines=True&rdExcelOutputFormat=Excel2007"
  },
  {
   "bytes": 13368300,
   "docs_url": "/docs/state-dese/dese-enrollment-by-grade.xlsx",
   "note": "A headcount on 1 October of the school year. The students series here.",
   "path": "sources/state-dese/dese-enrollment-by-grade.xlsx",
   "publisher": "Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education",
   "sha256": "a2fb23dea70ce67dc0aea46a5eb4856630b1655d2ddf470b96681cdc6a56543e",
   "table": "Enrollment by grade, FY1994\u2013FY2026",
   "url": "https://educationtocareer.data.mass.gov/d/t8td-gens"
  }
 ],
 "window5": {
  "first_fy": 2021,
  "homes": 87,
  "last_fy": 2026,
  "students": -25
 }
}