{
 "choice_in": {
  "arithmetic_checks": 11,
  "chain_checks": 11,
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  "cherry_sheet": [
   {
    "amount": 94912.0,
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   },
   {
    "amount": 104835.0,
    "fy": 2026
   },
   {
    "amount": 77329.0,
    "fy": 2027
   }
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  "cherry_source": "sources/town-budget/text/3765-town-meeting-booklet-including-warrant.txt",
  "first": {
   "carried": 134583.69,
   "derived": null,
   "disbursements": 375941.58,
   "edition": "FY2012",
   "forward": 191468.27,
   "fund": "School Choice",
   "fy": 2012,
   "page": "66",
   "receipts": 319057.0,
   "status": "check failed",
   "usable": true,
   "why": null
  },
  "fund_series": [
   {
    "carried": null,
    "derived": null,
    "disbursements": 191468.27,
    "edition": "FY2011",
    "forward": null,
    "fund": "School Choice",
    "fy": 2011,
    "page": "67",
    "receipts": 379696.77,
    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": false,
    "why": "the extract captured fewer than the four columns the schedule prints, so this year states no receipts figure"
   },
   {
    "carried": 134583.69,
    "derived": null,
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    "forward": 191468.27,
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
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    "derived": null,
    "disbursements": 371532.36,
    "edition": "FY2013",
    "forward": 134583.69,
    "fund": "School Choice",
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    "page": "71",
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
    "carried": 88023.05,
    "derived": null,
    "disbursements": 193679.28,
    "edition": "FY2014",
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    "fund": "School Choice",
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    "page": "29",
    "receipts": 220058.0,
    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
    "carried": 254512.23,
    "derived": null,
    "disbursements": 82483.82,
    "edition": "FY2015",
    "forward": 88023.05,
    "fund": "School Choice",
    "fy": 2015,
    "page": "29",
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
    "carried": 396869.58,
    "derived": null,
    "disbursements": 144315.65,
    "edition": "FY2016",
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    "fund": "School Choice",
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    "page": "31",
    "receipts": 286673.0,
    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
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    "derived": null,
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    "status": "check failed",
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   },
   {
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    "derived": null,
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
    "carried": 329505.67,
    "derived": "carried balance, from this row\u2019s own three others",
    "disbursements": 104424.93,
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    "status": "check failed",
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   },
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    "status": "check failed",
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
    "why": null
   },
   {
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    "derived": null,
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    "fund": "School Choice",
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    "page": "33",
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    "status": "check failed",
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   },
   {
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    "derived": null,
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    "edition": "FY2023",
    "forward": 533167.09,
    "fund": "School Choice",
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    "status": "check failed",
    "usable": true,
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   },
   {
    "carried": null,
    "derived": null,
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    "forward": 0.0,
    "fund": "1308 SCHOOL CHOICE",
    "fy": 2024,
    "page": "23",
    "receipts": 147912.14,
    "status": "no check",
    "usable": false,
    "why": "the extract captured fewer than the four columns the schedule prints, so this year states no receipts figure"
   }
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  "implied_from_cherry": [
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    "students": 19.0
   },
   {
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    "fy": 2026,
    "students": 21.0
   },
   {
    "amount": 77329.0,
    "fy": 2027,
    "students": 15.5
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   "carried": 338540.8,
   "derived": null,
   "disbursements": 311602.29,
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   "page": "35",
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   "status": "check failed",
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   "why": null
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  "peak": {
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   "derived": null,
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   "forward": 191468.27,
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   "status": "check failed",
   "usable": true,
   "why": null
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  "receipts_change": -202081.0,
  "receipts_pct": -0.6334,
  "status": [
   "check failed",
   "no check"
  ],
  "status_means": "Every one of these rows is `check failed`, and that status is about the PAGE: the schedule\u2019s columns do not foot to the totals the report prints. It is not a statement about this row. What IS established here is the row\u2019s own arithmetic and the chain between documents \u2014 both asserted by the generator, neither by the extract.",
  "usable_years": [
   2012,
   2013,
   2014,
   2015,
   2016,
   2017,
   2018,
   2019,
   2020,
   2021,
   2022,
   2023
  ]
 },
 "enrolment": {
  "checks": [
   "residents + school choice students = total, on every row the page prints",
   "grades 9, 10, 11, 12 sum to the printed High School Total",
   "the five school totals sum to the printed All Schools Total",
   "the printed page and `report_enrollment_mcas` agree on every row"
  ],
  "choice_in_outside_hs": 0,
  "district_choice_in": 17,
  "district_resident": 1568,
  "district_total": 1585,
  "document": "4130-fy-2025-annual-town-report.pdf",
  "fy": 2025,
  "grades": [
   {
    "choice_in": 5,
    "grade": "9",
    "resident": 89,
    "total": 94
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 6,
    "grade": "10",
    "resident": 110,
    "total": 116
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 4,
    "grade": "11",
    "resident": 116,
    "total": 120
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 2,
    "grade": "12",
    "resident": 118,
    "total": 120
   }
  ],
  "headings": [
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   "Lunenburg Resident Students",
   "School Choice Students",
   "Total"
  ],
  "headings_raw": "Grade Level Lunenburg Resident Students School Choice Students Total",
  "hs_choice_in": 17,
  "hs_resident": 433,
  "hs_total": 450,
  "page": "89",
  "schools": [
   {
    "choice_in": 0,
    "resident": 389,
    "school": "Primary Total",
    "total": 389
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 0,
    "resident": 356,
    "school": "Elementary Total",
    "total": 356
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 0,
    "resident": 382,
    "school": "Middle School Total",
    "total": 382
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 17,
    "resident": 433,
    "school": "High School Total",
    "total": 450
   },
   {
    "choice_in": 0,
    "resident": 8,
    "school": "Advanced Community",
    "total": 8
   }
  ],
  "status": "no check",
  "status_means": "The extract carries no reconciliation because the page prints no total it could be tied to. Nothing here may be aggregated with a `checked` row without saying so."
 },
 "flows": {
  "destinations": [
   {
    "district": "Leominster",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 18
   },
   {
    "district": "Francis W. Parker Charter Essential (District)",
    "reason": "Charter School",
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   },
   {
    "district": "Fitchburg",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 8
   },
   {
    "district": "Greater Commonwealth Virtual District",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 8
   },
   {
    "district": "TEC Connections Academy Commonwealth Virtual School District",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 8
   },
   {
    "district": "Sizer School: A North Central Charter Essential (District)",
    "reason": "Charter School",
    "students": 7
   },
   {
    "district": "Nashoba",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 4
   },
   {
    "district": "Harvard",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 3
   },
   {
    "district": "Ayer Shirley School District",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 2
   },
   {
    "district": "Gardner",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 2
   },
   {
    "district": "Berlin-Boylston",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1
   },
   {
    "district": "Groton-Dunstable",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1
   },
   {
    "district": "Littleton",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1
   },
   {
    "district": "North Middlesex",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1
   },
   {
    "district": "Ralph C Mahar",
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1
   }
  ],
  "first": {
   "attending_lunenburg": 1513,
   "in_choice": 44,
   "in_reasons": {
    "Resident/Member": 1513,
    "School Choice Program": 44,
    "Tuitioned In - Agreement With Another In-state District": 7
   },
   "net_choice": 25,
   "out_charter": 44,
   "out_choice": 69,
   "out_reasons": {
    "Charter School": 44,
    "Resident/Member": 1585,
    "School Choice Program": 69,
    "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
   },
   "resident_total": 1699,
   "sy": 2014
  },
  "last": {
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   "in_reasons": {
    "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 2,
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    "School Choice Program": 11,
    "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 2
   },
   "net_choice": 47,
   "out_charter": 22,
   "out_choice": 58,
   "out_reasons": {
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    "Resident/Member": 1650,
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   },
   "resident_total": 1730,
   "sy": 2026
  },
  "latest": {
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    "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 2
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   "net_choice": 47,
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   },
   "resident_total": 1730,
   "sy": 2026
  },
  "latest_sy": 2026,
  "low": {
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   "in_reasons": {
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    "School Choice Program": 15
   },
   "net_choice": 41,
   "out_charter": 26,
   "out_choice": 56,
   "out_reasons": {
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    "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
    "Resident/Member": 1662,
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    "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
   },
   "resident_total": 1746,
   "sy": 2024
  },
  "mean_out": 75.8,
  "member_elsewhere": [
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    "district": "Montachusett Regional Vocational Technical",
    "students": 97
   }
  ],
  "origins": [
   {
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 5,
    "town": "Leominster"
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   {
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 2,
    "town": "Ashby"
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    "reason": "School Choice Program",
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    "town": "Fitchburg"
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   {
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1,
    "town": "Gardner"
   },
   {
    "reason": "School Choice Program",
    "students": 1,
    "town": "Pepperell"
   }
  ],
  "peak": {
   "attending_lunenburg": 1567,
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   "in_reasons": {
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    "School Choice Program": 45
   },
   "net_choice": 61,
   "out_charter": 40,
   "out_choice": 106,
   "out_reasons": {
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    "Foreign Exchange Student": 1,
    "Resident/Member": 1656,
    "School Choice Program": 106,
    "Tuitioned In - Chapter 74": 1,
    "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
   },
   "resident_total": 1805,
   "sy": 2017
  },
  "reasons_seen": [
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   "Foreign Exchange Student",
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  ],
  "series": [
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1513,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Resident/Member": 1513,
     "School Choice Program": 44,
     "Tuitioned In - Agreement With Another In-state District": 7
    },
    "net_choice": 25,
    "out_charter": 44,
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    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 44,
     "Resident/Member": 1585,
     "School Choice Program": 69,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
    },
    "resident_total": 1699,
    "sy": 2014
   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1513,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Resident/Member": 1513,
     "School Choice Program": 39,
     "Tuitioned In - Agreement With Another In-state District": 5
    },
    "net_choice": 50,
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    "out_choice": 89,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 42,
     "Resident/Member": 1590,
     "School Choice Program": 89,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
    },
    "resident_total": 1722,
    "sy": 2015
   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1512,
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    "in_reasons": {
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     "School Choice Program": 53,
     "Tuitioned In - Agreement With Another In-state District": 2
    },
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    "out_charter": 40,
    "out_choice": 80,
    "out_reasons": {
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     "Tuitioned In - Chapter 74": 1,
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    "resident_total": 1723,
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   },
   {
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    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 40,
     "Foreign Exchange Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1656,
     "School Choice Program": 106,
     "Tuitioned In - Chapter 74": 1,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
    },
    "resident_total": 1805,
    "sy": 2017
   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1598,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Foreign Exchange Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1598,
     "School Choice Program": 42
    },
    "net_choice": 57,
    "out_charter": 30,
    "out_choice": 99,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 30,
     "Foreign Exchange Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1677,
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     "Tuitioned In - Chapter 74": 1,
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    },
    "resident_total": 1812,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1616,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Resident/Member": 1616,
     "School Choice Program": 33
    },
    "net_choice": 41,
    "out_charter": 26,
    "out_choice": 74,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 26,
     "Resident/Member": 1689,
     "School Choice Program": 74,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 3
    },
    "resident_total": 1792,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1606,
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    "in_reasons": {
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     "Resident/Member": 1606,
     "School Choice Program": 34
    },
    "net_choice": 50,
    "out_charter": 27,
    "out_choice": 84,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 27,
     "Foreign Exchange Student": 1,
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 2,
     "Resident/Member": 1681,
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     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 3
    },
    "resident_total": 1798,
    "sy": 2020
   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1565,
    "in_choice": 27,
    "in_reasons": {
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1565,
     "School Choice Program": 27
    },
    "net_choice": 41,
    "out_charter": 30,
    "out_choice": 68,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 30,
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1642,
     "School Choice Program": 68,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 3
    },
    "resident_total": 1744,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1578,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1578,
     "School Choice Program": 18
    },
    "net_choice": 59,
    "out_charter": 28,
    "out_choice": 77,
    "out_reasons": {
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     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 5,
     "Resident/Member": 1669,
     "School Choice Program": 77,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 2
    },
    "resident_total": 1781,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1541,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Resident/Member": 1541,
     "School Choice Program": 21
    },
    "net_choice": 46,
    "out_charter": 25,
    "out_choice": 67,
    "out_reasons": {
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     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 3,
     "Resident/Member": 1634,
     "School Choice Program": 67,
     "Tuitioned In - Chapter 74": 1,
     "Tuitioned In - Paid by Parent/Guardian": 1,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
    },
    "resident_total": 1732,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1565,
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    "in_reasons": {
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     "School Choice Program": 15
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    "out_choice": 56,
    "out_reasons": {
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     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
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     "School Choice Program": 56,
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    },
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1544,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 1,
     "Resident/Member": 1544,
     "School Choice Program": 18
    },
    "net_choice": 40,
    "out_charter": 29,
    "out_choice": 58,
    "out_reasons": {
     "Charter School": 29,
     "Resident/Member": 1640,
     "School Choice Program": 58,
     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 1
    },
    "resident_total": 1728,
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   },
   {
    "attending_lunenburg": 1553,
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    "in_reasons": {
     "Out of District - Foster Care Student": 2,
     "Resident/Member": 1553,
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     "Tuitioned In - Waived by Local Agreement": 2
    },
    "net_choice": 47,
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    "key": "profile",
    "path": "sources/state-dese/dese-ch70-district-profile.xlsx",
    "rows": 14848,
    "sha256": "a0dc63bc9d515b28614c0ac5a0de70402a3e8a22dab1a4333e516808ad62df61",
    "sheet": "DataC70",
    "title": "Chapter 70 District Profile \u2014 foundation enrolment, foundation budget, required local contribution and aid, every district, FY1993 onward"
   },
   {
    "dataset": null,
    "file": "dese-ch70-key-factors.xlsx",
    "key": "factors",
    "path": "sources/state-dese/dese-ch70-key-factors.xlsx",
    "rows": 8767,
    "sha256": "9fdc7d0a6131c82a400509f336f2ac88539e05b2dde1b019232757e668bc2e6f",
    "sheet": "dataAid",
    "title": "Chapter 70 Trends in Aid and Local Contribution \u2014 the AID CALCULATION broken into its named components"
   }
  ],
  "span": [
   1993,
   2026
  ],
  "town_ledger_ch70": 9229410.0
 },
 "gaps": [
  {
   "closes": "DLS Cherry Sheet CS 1-EB (estimated charges) for Lunenburg, which prints the school choice sending and charter tuition assessments on their own lines.",
   "side": "people",
   "what": "What the children who leave the district cost, as against how many there are",
   "why": "The COUNTS are published and this project now holds them: DESE\u2019s enrollment of town residents by district (dataset vxt3-k35x) states, for every school year from SY2014 to SY2026, how many Lunenburg residents attend each other district and under which programme. SY2026: 58 children under School Choice, 22 at charter schools and 97 at Montachusett Regional as members rather than by choice. The companion file (8xyg-59b2) counts the children arriving the other way, 11 in SY2026. So \"a fall in enrolment is not a count of departures\" is no longer a reason to refuse the question \u2014 the departures are counted. What is NOT published anywhere in this archive is the MONEY: not one document states the tuition Lunenburg is assessed for those 58 children, or for the 22 at charters, and the two rates are set differently and are higher for special education."
  },
  {
   "closes": "DLS Cherry Sheet CS 1-EB (estimated charges) for Lunenburg, which prints the school choice sending assessment on its own line.",
   "side": "money_out",
   "what": "What Lunenburg pays in school choice sending tuition, and for how many children",
   "why": "The town pays tuition to every district a Lunenburg child chooses into, and that money is assessed rather than appropriated: it sits inside the single `State Assessments (Outside Operating FY27)` line of $1,069,349 in the FY2027 Town Meeting booklet, which is never broken out. The archive now holds DESE\u2019s count of the children \u2014 58 leaving under school choice in SY2026 \u2014 and still not one figure for what they cost. The statutory base rate is $5,000 a child under M.G.L. c.76 \u00a712B and is higher for special education, and no document in this archive states either, so every scenario of students transferring out is priced on an assumption."
  },
  {
   "closes": "DESE\u2019s preliminary Chapter 70 aid calculation for Lunenburg for the year in question, which states the foundation aid, minimum aid and hold-harmless components before the year is set.",
   "side": "money_in",
   "what": "What Chapter 70 aid would actually do if enrolment fell",
   "why": "MUCH NARROWER THAN IT WAS. DESE\u2019s Chapter 70 trends workbook breaks the aid calculation into its named components, and for Lunenburg they show that this year\u2019s aid is last year\u2019s aid plus named increments \u2014 an identity that holds to the dollar in every one of the last seven years. In FY2026 the whole of the increase is the minimum aid increment, $240,450, which is exactly $150.00 for each of the 1,603 foundation pupils, and the foundation aid increment is zero. Over thirty-four years foundation enrolment fell in 17 and aid fell in 3 \u2014 FY1997, FY2010 and FY2011. DESE\u2019s component columns show a reduction applied in FY2010 and FY2011; they start at FY2007, so nothing in this archive says why aid fell in FY1997. So the marginal aid attached to one foundation pupil is currently about $150 and not the $14,440 foundation budget per pupil. What is NOT established: that the Legislature sets the same minimum aid rate next year \u2014 it has ranged from $30 to $150 a pupil in the years published \u2014 nor what happens if a large enough enrolment fall moves the district off the minimum aid track, which no document here models."
  },
  {
   "closes": "DESE\u2019s FY26 foundation budget rate schedule, the table of per-pupil rates by grade and category and the low-income increment by decile group.",
   "side": "money_in",
   "what": "What the foundation budget pays per pupil for each kind of child",
   "why": "DESE builds the foundation budget from per-pupil rates that differ by grade and by category, and it publishes the CATEGORIES for Lunenburg \u2014 FY2026 foundation enrolment of 1,603, of whom 54 are English learners (3.4%), 452 are low income (28.8%, low-income group 5) and none is vocational, at a wage adjustment factor of 1.000 \u2014 without publishing the rate attached to any of them in the same file. So which children leave a district changes the foundation effect and not only how many, and this archive can state that it matters and cannot size it."
  },
  {
   "closes": "the district\u2019s own staffing and section plan by grade \u2014 the document behind the School Committee\u2019s 16 April 2025 discussion of \"each grade, their size, and potential seats\" \u2014 which states the class sizes at which a section is added or removed.",
   "side": "money_out",
   "what": "How much of a school budget stops being spent when a student leaves",
   "why": "A student leaving removes revenue at once and in full. It removes cost only where a staffing or programme decision is taken, and nothing published says at what enrolment a class section is removed, a bus route is dropped or a teacher is not replaced. So the avoidable share of a per-pupil figure is an assumption in every scenario on this site, and it is the input the answer is most sensitive to: at the FY2027 appropriation per pupil, the difference between assuming none of it is avoidable and assuming all of it is is larger than the entire revenue effect being modelled."
  },
  {
   "closes": "an unduplicated athlete roster, or a participation report that states whether it counts students or participations.",
   "side": "people",
   "what": "How many children play sports",
   "why": "Two town documents give 593 and 649 for the same year and count different things: one counts fee categories, the other counts participations by sport, and a participation is not a child \u2014 one student playing three seasons is three of them. Some workbook rows are negative, subtracting out-of-district athletes back out, so a season total is a net figure rather than a headcount of bodies. Nothing published is an unduplicated count."
  },
  {
   "closes": "DESE\u2019s FY27 foundation enrollment worksheet for Lunenburg, which states the October 1 count by grade and category the formula was run on.",
   "side": "people",
   "what": "How many children Chapter 70 is actually paid for",
   "why": "The aid is calculated on a `Foundation enrollment` of 1,599 in DESE\u2019s FY27 Chapter 70 summary. DESE publishes three other counts for the same district \u2014 Student Headcount, In-District FTE Pupils and Total FTE Pupils \u2014 and in the latest year published they are 1,563, 1,568.9 and 1,665.9. Four numbers, one agency, none of them equal, measured on different dates and counting different things. So every per-pupil figure on this project, including aid per pupil, is a division by a count whose definition has to be stated with it, and no published document reconciles the foundation count to the children in the buildings."
  },
  {
   "closes": "DLS Cherry Sheet CS 1-ER (estimated receipts) and CS 1-EB (estimated charges) for Lunenburg, FY2021 to FY2027.",
   "side": "document_wanted",
   "what": "The Cherry Sheet itself \u2014 what the state told Lunenburg to expect, receipt by receipt",
   "why": "This archive holds no Cherry Sheet for any year. The Cherry Sheet is the state\u2019s own statement of estimated aid and assessments to a Massachusetts town, and it is what a tax rate is set on. Without it the only measurement of aid estimate error this project can make is one net line on the Division of Local Services free cash proof \u2014 `Excess/Shortfall Cherry Sheet Receipts (CL#8)` \u2014 which lumps Chapter 70, Unrestricted General Government Aid, the abatement reimbursements and every other receipt into a single figure. So a year that came in $390,814 short can be reported as short and cannot be reported as short in anything."
  }
 ],
 "generated_by": "scripts/build_if_students_leave.py",
 "key_factors": {
  "el": 54,
  "el_share": 0.0337,
  "enrollment": 1603,
  "file": "dese-ch70-key-factors.xlsx",
  "foundation": 22073945.75,
  "foundation_per_pupil": 13770.4,
  "labor_market": "Leominster-Gardner MA Metropolitan NECTA",
  "lowinc": 452,
  "lowinc_group": 5,
  "lowinc_share": 0.2878,
  "row": 107,
  "sheet": "Summary",
  "title": "FY26 Foundation Budget Per Pupil",
  "voc": 0,
  "voc_share": 0.0,
  "wage_factor": 1.0
 },
 "premise": {
  "biggest_season": "Fall",
  "biggest_season_participations": 213.0,
  "biggest_season_share": 0.4919,
  "fy": 2026,
  "hs_participations": 533.0,
  "implied_athletes": 195,
  "implied_athletes_exact": 194.85,
  "participation_share": 1.2309,
  "per_athlete": 2.74,
  "seasons": [
   {
    "participations": 213.0,
    "season": "Fall"
   },
   {
    "participations": 156.0,
    "season": "Winter"
   },
   {
    "participations": 164.0,
    "season": "Spring"
   }
  ],
  "verdict": "consistent",
  "verdict_note": "At 45% of 433 the scenario implies 195 athletes playing 2.74 sports each, which is an ordinary number. The largest single season on its own is 49% of the student body, so if anything 45% is low. Neither of these is a count of children and neither should be quoted as one."
 },
 "related": [
  {
   "id": "fy27-and-the-override",
   "pdf": "/docs/analyses/fy27-and-the-override.pdf",
   "title": "Lunenburg FY28 \u2014 What the source data says (research notes, Aug 2026)",
   "updated": "2026-08-28",
   "url": "/docs/analyses/fy27-and-the-override.md",
   "why": "Where the FY27 revenue figures come from, including the state aid arithmetic this scenario runs against",
   "words": 1413
  },
  {
   "id": "athletics",
   "pdf": "/docs/analyses/athletics.pdf",
   "title": "Athletics: what it costs, who pays, and what the budget line does not say",
   "updated": "2026-09-07",
   "url": "/docs/analyses/athletics.md",
   "why": "The participation counts this scenario\u2019s 45% is tested against, and why a participation is not a child",
   "words": 7302
  },
  {
   "id": "connecting-the-budget",
   "pdf": "/docs/analyses/connecting-the-budget.pdf",
   "title": "Connecting the school budget to the Town's books",
   "updated": "2026-09-03",
   "url": "/docs/analyses/connecting-the-budget.md",
   "why": "Why no state aid dollar can be followed to anything it paid for \u2014 0 of 222 accounts share an organisation code",
   "words": 938
  },
  {
   "id": "peer-districts",
   "pdf": "/docs/analyses/peer-districts.pdf",
   "title": "What comparable districts actually cut, and in what order",
   "updated": "2026-08-29",
   "url": "/docs/analyses/peer-districts.md",
   "why": "What comparable districts actually cut, and in what order, when they had to",
   "words": 1274
  }
 ],
 "said": [
  {
   "board": "School Committee",
   "cite": "/docs/meetings/text/school-committee/2025-03-12-minutes-7098.txt",
   "date": "2025-03-12",
   "key": "hemorrhage",
   "quote": "She said to me that she was looking at choicing out if her private school choices didn\u2019t come through. I think that's going to be the reality that we have if we're not able to offer our student choices they are going to hemorrhage out of the high school",
   "town": "https://www.lunenburgma.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Minutes/_03122025-7098",
   "who": "Tim Santry, LMHS Principal",
   "why": "The mechanism the scenario models is not hypothetical to the people running the high school. The principal named it at a public meeting, in the same remarks that record 27 class offerings cut over two years. What the minutes establish is that this was SAID; they do not establish that any student left, and nothing published counts departures."
  },
  {
   "board": "Finance Committee",
   "cite": "/docs/meetings/text/finance-committee/2026-02-26-minutes-7673.txt",
   "date": "2026-02-26",
   "key": "seats",
   "quote": "Dr. Jodi Fortuna stated that the School Committee did open 24 seats this year for school choice. She further states that only 5 students applied.",
   "town": "https://www.lunenburgma.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Minutes/_02262026-7673",
   "who": "Superintendent Dr. Jodi Fortuna, to the Finance Committee",
   "why": "School choice runs both ways and Lunenburg is on the receiving side too. Seats offered are a decision; students arriving are not, and the two numbers here are five times apart."
  },
  {
   "board": "Finance Committee",
   "cite": "/docs/meetings/text/finance-committee/2026-01-27-minutes-7619.txt",
   "date": "2026-01-27",
   "key": "uneven",
   "quote": "School Committee Chair Sculimbrene addressed the school choice revenue issue, noting that school choice demand is uneven across grade levels and that demand cannot simply be switched on.",
   "town": "https://www.lunenburgma.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Minutes/_01272026-7619",
   "who": "School Committee Chair Sculimbrene",
   "why": "Choice traffic is not smooth across grades in either direction, which is the same reason a scenario spread evenly over four grades is a model rather than a forecast."
  },
  {
   "board": "Finance Committee",
   "cite": "/docs/meetings/text/finance-committee/2026-01-27-minutes-7619.txt",
   "date": "2026-01-27",
   "key": "declined",
   "quote": "school choice enrollment revenue, which has declined from approximately $500,000 to $112,000 on the cherry sheet",
   "town": "https://www.lunenburgma.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Minutes/_01272026-7619",
   "who": "a Finance Committee member",
   "why": "The only figure anybody in Lunenburg has publicly attached to school choice money, and it is about money coming IN. This archive holds no Cherry Sheet for any year, so this can be reported as SAID and cannot be checked against the document it names \u2014 which is a gap somebody in the room reached before we did."
  },
  {
   "board": "School Committee",
   "cite": "/docs/meetings/text/school-committee/2026-02-04-minutes-7634.txt",
   "date": "2026-02-04",
   "key": "highschoolonly",
   "quote": "We are looking to only add school choice options to the high school.",
   "town": "https://www.lunenburgma.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Minutes/_02042026-7634",
   "who": "School Committee",
   "why": "The high school is where the choice seats are, in both directions. The FY2025 annual town report counts 17 school choice students in the district and every one of them is in grades 9 to 12."
  }
 ],
 "scenario": {
  "after_multiple": 2.34,
  "after_out": 136,
  "aid_loss": 11700.0,
  "aid_loss_ratio": 96.3,
  "aid_loss_upper": 1126320.78,
  "aid_per_pupil": 150.0,
  "aid_per_pupil_max": 14440.01,
  "aid_ratio": 96.3,
  "appropriation_per_pupil": 16618.07,
  "athletes": 195,
  "avoided": 0.0,
  "baseline_in": 11,
  "baseline_net": 47,
  "baseline_out": 58,
  "baseline_sy": 2026,
  "basis": {
   "aid_per_pupil": [
    "derived",
    "Opens on the minimum aid increment DESE\u2019s own aid-component columns give for the latest year, divided by that year\u2019s foundation enrolment \u2014 because in that year the minimum aid increment IS the whole of Lunenburg\u2019s increase and the foundation aid increment is zero. Drag it to the foundation budget per pupil for the scenario as it was originally modelled; the distance between the two ends is the correction the full data offers."
   ],
   "athlete_share": [
    "assumed",
    "The scenario as it was put to this site. Nothing published counts Lunenburg athletes as people rather than as participations, so this cannot be measured \u2014 but it can be bounded, and the bound is below."
   ],
   "avoidable_share": [
    "assumed",
    "Opens at zero because the students leave from across four grades, so no classroom closes on the arithmetic alone. Nothing published says at what enrolment a section is removed."
   ],
   "transfer_rate": [
    "assumed",
    "The scenario as it was put to this site. Nobody has measured how many Lunenburg students choice out in any year, in either direction."
   ],
   "tuition": [
    "statute",
    "The base school choice tuition set by M.G.L. c.76 \u00a712B. It is higher for special education placements, and THIS ARCHIVE HOLDS NO DOCUMENT STATING EITHER RATE. Treat it as a dial, not as a measurement."
   ]
  },
  "biggest_grade_loss": 21.3,
  "break_even_avoidable_share": 0.3099,
  "break_even_upper": 1.1698,
  "defaults": {
   "aid_per_pupil": 150.0,
   "athlete_share": 0.45,
   "avoidable_share": 0.0,
   "transfer_rate": 0.4,
   "tuition": 5000.0
  },
  "fee": {
   "amount": 400.0,
   "fy": 2027,
   "school_year": "2026-27",
   "set_on": "2026-08",
   "source": "Superintendent's email to families, August 2026"
  },
  "fees_lost": 85488.0,
  "foundation_per_pupil": 14440.01,
  "foundation_reduction": 1126320.78,
  "hs_resident": 433,
  "leavers": 78,
  "max_avoidable": 1296209.46,
  "net_cost": 401700.0,
  "net_cost_upper": 1516320.78,
  "participations_lost": 213.7,
  "per_grade": [
   {
    "grade": "9",
    "leaving": 16.0,
    "remaining": 73.0,
    "resident": 89,
    "share": 0.1801
   },
   {
    "grade": "10",
    "leaving": 19.8,
    "remaining": 90.2,
    "resident": 110,
    "share": 0.1801
   },
   {
    "grade": "11",
    "leaving": 20.9,
    "remaining": 95.1,
    "resident": 116,
    "share": 0.1801
   },
   {
    "grade": "12",
    "leaving": 21.3,
    "remaining": 96.7,
    "resident": 118,
    "share": 0.1801
   }
  ],
  "tuition_out": 390000.0
 },
 "source": "sources/town-annual-reports/text/4130-fy-2025-annual-town-report.txt; sources/budget-workbooks/ch70-fy27-summary.xlsx; sources/town-budget/text/3765-town-meeting-booklet-including-warrant.txt; dese-ch70-district-profile.xlsx; dese-ch70-key-factors.xlsx; dese-enrollment-receiving.xlsx; dese-residents-sending.xlsx; fy28/public/data/athletics.json; model/taxbase.py; sources/data/lunenburg.db \u2014 report_enrollment_mcas, v_revenue, special_revenue_funds, money_gaps; sources/meetings/text/"
}
