Budget crisis

Cost and revenue growth

Keeping today’s schools costs 5.18% more each year; revenue grows 3.22% a year in FY2028, then less.

Cost and revenue growth ratesour estimate
Cost of today’s schools (ours)School revenue (ours)
Cost of today’s schools (ours)School revenue (ours)
FY20285.18%3.22%
FY20295.18%3.20%
FY20305.18%3.18%
FY20315.18%3.16%
FY20325.18%3.14%
FY20335.18%3.12%
FY20345.18%3.10%
FY20355.18%3.08%
FY20365.18%3.07%
FY20375.18%3.05%
FY20385.18%3.03%
FY20395.18%3.02%
FY20405.18%3.00%
FY20415.18%2.99%
FY20425.18%2.98%
FY20435.18%2.96%
FY20445.18%2.95%
FY20455.18%2.94%
FY20465.18%2.93%
FY20475.18%2.91%
FY20485.18%2.90%
FY20495.18%2.89%
FY20505.18%2.88%
FY20515.18%2.87%
FY20525.18%2.86%
FY20535.18%2.85%
FY20545.18%2.84%
FY20555.18%2.83%
FY20565.18%2.83%
FY20575.18%2.82%

Both are our projection. Costs hold their blended rate; revenue drifts toward the cap as flat new growth shrinks as a share.

1 · The facts

  • 5.18% a year

    cost growth, keeping today’s schools as they are (ours)

    our estimate

  • 3.22% a year

    school revenue growth, FY2028 (ours)

    our estimate

  • 2.82% a year

    school revenue growth, FY2057 (ours)

    our estimate

  • 2.5% a year

    levy limit growth, set by Proposition 2½

    law

  • 1.96 points

    cost growth minus revenue growth, FY2028 (ours)

    our estimate

  • $400,000

    new growth a year, held flat (ours)

    our estimate

  • $9,300,751

    projected gap, FY2037 (ours)

    our estimate

2 · What it shows

  1. 1

    Two rates 1.96 points apart: the gap grows every year at these rates, to $9,300,751 by FY2037.

  2. 2

    Revenue growth falls to 2.82% a year by FY2057: new growth is a flat $400,000, a shrinking share.

  3. 3

    A cut lowers costs once; it leaves the growth of 5.18% a year where it was.

Sources

What changed

Version 15 — updated September 20, 2026