Enrolment

Grade 8 loss trend

The latest grade 8 rate, 27.7%, is the second-highest of 17 years, inside a range the town has always been in.

1 · The facts

  • 27.7%

    grade 8 leaving rate, SY2026

  • 28.7%

    the highest year, SY2013

  • 13.2%

    the lowest year, SY2016

  • 122

    in that grade 8, FY2025

  • 3

    the current run of rises

  • 3

    the longest earlier run

  • 4.9 points

    between the five eras’ averages

2 · What it shows

  1. 1

    27.7% in SY2026 sits between the 13.2% low and the 28.7% high of the series.

  2. 2

    The rise has run 3 years; an earlier run was also 3.

  3. 3

    Split at each school reorganisation, the eras’ averages sit within 4.9 points of each other.

  4. 4

    In a grade of 122 children, each child who leaves moves the rate almost a point.

Grade 8 leaving rate by year
YearRateGrade 8 the year beforeImplied childrennot from the books
SY202627.7%12233.8
SY202523.8%13231.4
SY202418.6%12924.0
SY202319.1%14227.1
SY202219.7%12023.6
SY202118.2%14125.7
SY202023.0%12629.0
SY201917.7%14726.0
SY201815.3%12318.8
SY201719.1%11522.0
SY201613.2%12716.8
SY201523.4%14433.7
SY201420.5%12225.0
SY201328.7%12435.6
SY201219.4%12824.8
SY201120.7%13527.9
SY201020.0%13426.8

DESE’s rate and DESE’s enrolment. The implied column multiplies them and is ours, not a headcount anybody published.

Sources

What changed

Version 15 — updated September 20, 2026