Analyses

Who ends up out of district

Of 198 children who started in a substantially separate classroom, 36 are now out of district. Of 1,232 who started in an inclusive setting, 15 are.

lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district.

36 of 198

started substantially separate, now out of district (18.2%, pooled across 9 cohorts)

15 of 1,232

started in an inclusive setting, now out of district (1.2%)

children the town reported placed out of district on 1 March 2025

What this report counts

Two grains, kept apart on purpose. A placement COHORT the state follows, and a HEADCOUNT the town prints on 1 March. Neither is a cost. A count of children placed says nothing about which fund paid or what any placement cost — that is the money report, and it is a separate page for exactly this reason.

What this establishes

Finding 1

The two starting points differ by a factor of about 15

Pooled over 9 cohorts: 18.2% against 1.2%. In the most recent year alone it is 4 of 28 against 2 of 123. The counts are the figure. A rate off a base of 28 moves by 3.6 points when one child does.

Finding 2

Against the state, Lunenburg is lower from an inclusive start and higher from a substantially separate one

In FY26 the state’s own figures are 2.6% from an inclusive start (2,157 of 83,985) and 11.2% from a substantially separate one. Lunenburg is 1.6% and 14.3%. Both Lunenburg figures rest on tens of children and the state figures on tens of thousands, so this is a bearing rather than a comparison.

Finding 3

The town's own placement count runs from 30 down to 7 and back to 10

Published every year since FY11 in the Special Services report inside the annual town report, sourced to SIMS Report 7 and measured on 1 March. The peak is 30 in FY15; the low is 7 in FY23. It sat unread for the whole of that span because it is two sentences of prose with no heading naming it.

Finding 4

Two published counts of the same quantity agree in 2 of the 5 years they overlap

The town’s figure and DESE’s. Both are published below and neither is averaged into the other. Different census dates fit the disagreement and so does a different inclusion rule; nothing states either date beside the other.

Where a placement leads

DESE follows a cohort from the setting its placement started in to where the same children are now. Two starting points are published for Lunenburg, and the chart is the share of each that is now out of district — with the counts in the tooltip, because the bases are tens of children.

started in an inclusive setting — share now out of districtstarted substantially separate — share now out of district

9 years · FY2018–FY2026 · K-12 cohorts — the percentage never travels without its count

every cohort, with the destinations the file publishes

year	grade span	started in	cohort	no longer on an IEP	included	substantially separate	out of district	unaccounted
FY18	K-12	Inclusive Setting	151	40	103	1	5 · 3.3%	2
FY18	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	12	0	3	4	5 · 41.7%	0
FY18	K-2	Inclusive Setting	50	14	34	1	1 · 2.0%	0
FY19	K-12	Inclusive Setting	155	52	95	5	3 · 1.9%	0
FY19	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	15	0	2	7	6 · 40.0%	0
FY19	K-2	Inclusive Setting	54	24	28	2	0 · 0.0%	0
FY20	K-12	Inclusive Setting	145	51	88	5	1 · 0.7%	0
FY20	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	20	0	6	8	6 · 30.0%	0
FY20	K-2	Inclusive Setting	49	21	27	1	0 · 0.0%	0
FY21	K-12	Inclusive Setting	135	51	78	5	1 · 0.7%	0
FY21	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	22	4	5	8	5 · 22.7%	0
FY21	K-2	Inclusive Setting	45	18	25	2	0 · 0.0%	0
FY21	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	8	4	1	2	1 · 12.5%	0
FY22	K-12	Inclusive Setting	136	54	76	5	1 · 0.7%	0
FY22	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	21	2	6	11	1 · 4.8%	1
FY22	K-2	Inclusive Setting	45	24	19	2	0 · 0.0%	0
FY22	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	11	2	3	5	0 · 0.0%	1
FY23	K-12	Inclusive Setting	128	43	76	7	1 · 0.8%	1
FY23	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	22	0	8	13	1 · 4.5%	0
FY23	K-2	Inclusive Setting	53	23	25	4	0 · 0.0%	1
FY23	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	7	0	1	6	0 · 0.0%	0
FY24	K-12	Inclusive Setting	126	42	73	11	0 · 0.0%	0
FY24	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	26	5	6	11	4 · 15.4%	0
FY24	K-2	Inclusive Setting	47	23	18	6	0 · 0.0%	0
FY24	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	12	5	1	4	2 · 16.7%	0
FY25	K-12	Inclusive Setting	133	55	69	8	1 · 0.8%	0
FY25	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	32	3	8	17	4 · 12.5%	0
FY25	K-2	Inclusive Setting	38	22	13	3	0 · 0.0%	0
FY25	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	9	3	2	4	0 · 0.0%	0
FY26	K-12	Inclusive Setting	123	40	74	7	2 · 1.6%	0
FY26	K-12	Substantially Separate Classroom	28	3	3	18	4 · 14.3%	0
FY26	K-2	Inclusive Setting	26	11	15	0	0 · 0.0%	0
FY26	K-2	Substantially Separate Classroom	6	2	1	3	0 · 0.0%	0

The K-2 rows in that table are a subset grade span, not a peer of the K-12 rows, so they are never added to them. 15 of them are published.

What this does not show

That a substantially separate placement leads to an out-of-district one. The two groups were already placed differently before either was followed, and children placed in the more intensive setting are not a random sample of the others. Selection fits this measurement exactly as well as any process does, and nothing here separates the two.

What this does not show

The period. DESE publishes this file with no documentation of the interval between the starting placement and the destination, and nothing in the workbook states it. Every rate above is a rate over an unstated span, which is why none of them is annualised anywhere on this page.

A possible explanation — nothing here tests it

Some of the placements in the town’s count never travelled this route at all. The district told the School Committee in February 2026 that children move into Lunenburg already requiring an out-of-district placement; such a child enters the count without ever appearing in a cohort followed from an in-district setting. How many is not established, and the quote is evidence that it happens rather than a measure of how often.

What would settle it: The district’s own record of placements by origin — how many were referred from an in-district setting and how many arrived already placed — which nothing in this archive publishes.

“we currently have students on our radar that may require out of district placement and we have also had students move into the district that require out of district placements”

School Committee · 2026-02-04 · our copy · the town’s

The second half is the one this page cannot see. A cohort followed from an in-district placement measures the route through the district’s own settings; a child who arrives already placed enters the count without ever appearing in that cohort.

The town’s own count

A different instrument on the same question, and the longer of the two: the Special Services report inside every annual town report, on 1 March, split into collaborative, day and residential placements. Two checks travel with it — the parts sum to the stated total, and each year restates the previous year’s figure, which chains the series to itself.

collaborativedayresidential

15 years · FY2011–FY2025 · the Special Services report, measured on 1 March each year

the published rows, with their own checks

year	as of	total	collaborative	day	residential	how the report counts collaborative	parts tie	agrees with the next year’s restatement	report	page
FY11	2011-03-01	15	—	13	2	subset of day placements	yes	—	FY2011	35
FY12	2012-03-01	24	—	19	5	subset of day placements	yes	—	FY2012	33
FY13	2013-03-01	22	—	17	5	not stated	yes	—	FY2013	32
FY14	2014-03-01	26	7	13	6	parallel category	yes	—	FY2014	96
FY15	2015-03-01	30	9	15	6	parallel category	yes	—	FY2015	103
FY16	2016-03-01	19	4	12	3	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2016	105
FY17	2017-03-01	14	2	8	4	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2017	102
FY18	2018-03-01	14	6	5	3	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2018	115
FY19	2019-03-01	12	4	5	3	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2019	119
FY20	2020-03-01	11	3	3	5	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2020	109
FY21	2021-03-01	12	—	—	—	not stated	—	—	recovered from FY2022 p104	—
FY22	2022-03-01	8	4	2	2	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2022	104
FY23	2023-03-01	7	3	3	1	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2023	120
FY24	2024-03-01	8	4	3	1	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2024	97
FY25	2025-03-01	10	6	3	1	parallel category	yes	yes	FY2025	92

What this does not show

The split for FY21: that year’s report prints no breakdown at all, and the total shown was recovered from the following year’s restatement. The chart draws no segments where none were published rather than interpolating them.

What this does not show

That the collaborative column means the same thing in every year. In FY11, FY12, FY13, FY21 the report counts collaborative placements on a different basis — recorded in the data as “not stated” and “subset of day placements” — so a collaborative figure from one of those years and one from a year marked “parallel category” are not the same measurement, even though both sum correctly to their own printed total. The chart stacks the parts as each report published them and does not restate the earlier ones.

The two counts, against each other

Both are published counts of Lunenburg children placed out of district, from two publishers, for the same school years. They are set side by side and left there.

the town’s count and DESE’s

year	the town (1 March)	DESE	difference
FY21	12	12	0
FY22	8	10	2
FY23	7	4	-3
FY24	8	9	1
FY25	10	10	0

What this does not show

Which is right. Averaging them, or picking one, would be this project adding a claim neither document makes — the same rule that governs the three irreconcilable athletics cost figures elsewhere in this archive. Publish the spread.

What the town said about this

documents mention “out of district placement”

documents mention “inclusion”

documents mention “substantially separate”

197

documents mention “collaborative”

Searched 8,899 of the 12,015 meeting documents this archive holds (74%), covering 2009-01-05 to 2026-11-17. The other 3,116 carry no text a search can match — 3,096 of them are image scans awaiting OCR. An empty result above is a statement about what can be read, never about what was said.

The documents

dese-sped-placement-trajectory.xlsx

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

Special Education Placement Trajectory (92x3-2qj9). Where a cohort started and where the same children are now. THE BASES ARE TENS OF CHILDREN.

table dese_sped_trajectory · 762 KB

sha256 ff3e4c9e8dd8bb7d…

our copy · the publisher’s

dese-sped-program-characteristics.xlsx

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

Carries DESE’s own count of Lunenburg children placed out of district, which is a second instrument on the same question.

table dese_sped_program · 5.4 MB

sha256 417435bddfcac3eb…

our copy · the publisher’s

placement-counts.csv

Lunenburg — read from the annual town reports by this project

The Special Services report in each annual town report, sourced to SIMS Report 7 and measured on 1 March. Two checks travel with it: the parts sum to the stated total, and each year states the previous year’s figure.

table placement_counts · 2 KB

sha256 072db92dbd43e500…

our copy

What this report cannot answer

Over what period the trajectory measures. DESE publishes the file with no documentation of the interval between the starting placement and the destination, and nothing in the workbook states it. Every rate on this page is therefore a rate over an unstated span.
That a substantially separate placement leads to out-of-district. The cohorts starting there end out of district far more often than the cohorts starting in an inclusive setting, and that is a measurement about children who were already placed differently. Selection alone fits it: the children placed in the more intensive setting are not a random sample of the others.
That the route runs through the district at all. The district told the School Committee in February 2026 that children arrive in Lunenburg already requiring an out-of-district placement. Such a child enters the town’s count without ever appearing in a cohort followed from an in-district setting.
Which of the two published counts is right. They agree in some years and not others, and both are published above rather than averaged. The town counts on 1 March from SIMS Report 7; DESE publishes its own on its own census, and nothing states the two dates together.
What any of it costs. A placement count is children placed. It says nothing about which fund paid or what any placement cost — that is the companion report, and it is a separate page for this reason.

What would close these

DESE’s methodology note for dataset 92x3-2qj9, stating the interval and the cohort rule; and the district’s own record of placements by origin — how many were referred from an in-district setting and how many arrived already placed — which nothing in this archive publishes. Every limit on this page is also a row in what we cannot answer, which is the single registry the records request reads from.

The other three reports

How many students →counts children Who leaves, and where they go →counts children, with no disability flag What it costs, and what comes back →counts dollars