Analyses
1,568 children, and the fall that stopped in FY2015
Lunenburg’s enrolment fell 17.5% from FY2003 to FY2015 and has held between 1,557 and 1,649 since. The decline was a high-school decline; the number of children with disabilities never moved.
lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/enrollment.json
What this report counts
A HEADCOUNT on 1 October, from DESE. Children, not FTE, not dollars. A child is counted in the district that enrols them, so residents at Monty Tech, in school choice or in a placement are not in this count.
1,568 children, 319 fewer than the FY2003 peak — and the fall stopped in FY2015.
Since FY2015 it has stayed between 1,557 and 1,649. Smaller than it was; not still shrinking.
The argument in town assumes enrolment is falling. It fell — 17.5% from FY2003 to FY2015 — and then it stopped. The peak was FY2003 at 1,887. The low was FY2015 at 1,557. Every year since has been within 92 of that low, and FY2026 is 1,568. A budget built on a falling headcount is built on a decade-old trend.
What a smaller school does and does not save →
What it rests on `dese_enrollment`, Lunenburg district rows, total_cnt, FY1994–FY2026; every row from FY2003 has its grades summed to its total, and the three earlier rows are marked `no check`.
What it does not show Why. Births, moves, school choice and Monty Tech all change this count and this file separates none of them. And it is one day a year: a child who arrives in November is not here.
Grades 9–12 fell 30.0% since FY2008; pre-K to grade 5 fell 5.8%.
The decline is a high-school decline. The lower grades are close to where they were.
FY2008 to FY2026, grades 9–12 went from 619 to 433 children. Pre-K to grade 5 went from 791 to 745 (down 5.8%); grades 6–8 from 413 to 382 (down 7.5%). The step between grade 8 and grade 9 is where the town loses children every year, and this is what that looks like accumulated.
Which grades students leave in → · Where they go →
What it rests on `dese_enrollment` grade columns summed into three bands, Lunenburg district rows, FY2008 against FY2026.
What it does not show Where the ninth graders went. A vocational admission, a private school, school choice and a move are one absence here; /which-grades-students-leave measures the rate and /where-students-go-instead the destinations.
258 students with disabilities in FY2008, 258 in FY2026 — in a school 14.0% smaller.
Their share rose from 14.1% to 16.3% without a child being added.
The count moved between 227 and 299 over the years in between, and ends where it began. The share is a ratio, and its denominator fell; that is the whole of the movement. Special education staffing and cost are measured on other pages against this count.
The IEP count, in detail → · Special education →
What it rests on `dese_enrollment` swd_cnt and swd_pct, Lunenburg district rows.
What it does not show Need. A count of students with an IEP says nothing about the intensity of any plan, and DESE’s own placement data shows the mix of settings moving while the count did not.
English learners went from 3 children in FY2008 to 70 in FY2026.
The fastest-growing group in the school, and still 4.5% of enrolment.
Small numbers, and the growth is real: the count has risen in most years since FY2008. An English learner carries a higher weight in the Chapter 70 foundation budget, so this count moves aid as well as staffing.
How the formula weights students →
What it rests on `dese_enrollment` el_cnt, Lunenburg district rows.
What it does not show Which languages, which schools, or what it costs to teach them. DESE publishes the count and nothing here attaches a dollar to it.
FY2008 to FY2026 Lunenburg’s enrolment fell 14.0%; its 4 neighbours fell 9.6% to 37.0%.
A regional fall, not a Lunenburg one. Lunenburg is 4th of 5 in how much it shrank.
The table below gives each district’s count at both ends. The neighbour that fell most lost 37.0%; the one that fell least lost 9.6%. Ayer Shirley regionalised in FY2012 and has no FY2008 row, so it is not in this comparison.
The same districts, on spending →
What it rests on `dese_enrollment` district totals for Lunenburg and the five districts this site uses as peers, FY2008 and FY2026.
What it does not show Why the region fell. Births and housing are outside this file.
Those are the answers this report could reach from the documents behind it. If the one you came for is not among them, ask us — no name or email needed.
The count, by grade band
Every district year DESE publishes, FY1994 to FY2026. The three bands sum to the total (a handful of students past grade 12 make up the rest).
- all
- grades 6–8
- grades 9–12
- pre-K to 5
| band | FY2008 | FY2026 | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pre-K to grade 5 | 791 | 745 | -5.8% |
| grades 6-8 | 413 | 382 | -7.5% |
| grades 9-12 | 619 | 433 | -30.0% |
Who the children are
Students with disabilities and English learners are one series each. Low-income is three, because DESE changed its definition twice — the lines deliberately do not join.
- English learners
- economically disadvantaged (FY2015–21)
- low-income (from FY2022)
- low-income (to FY2014)
- students with disabilities
Three definitions. Through FY2014 free/reduced lunch; FY2015–FY2021 economically disadvantaged (state-record match); from FY2022 low income under a broader definition. Not one series.
The neighbours
Fall in enrolment, FY2008 to FY2026. Ayer Shirley regionalised in FY2012 and has no FY2008 row.
Each school, year by year
| school | FY1994 | FY2003 | FY2006 | FY2009 | FY2012 | FY2015 | FY2018 | FY2021 | FY2024 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunenburg High | 483 | 588 | 619 | 571 | 510 | 554 | 442 | 474 | 449 | 433 |
| Thomas C Passios Elem | 742 | 699 | 370 | 386 | ||||||
| Turkey Hill Middle | 533 | 600 | 429 | 395 | 386 | 481 | ||||
| Lunenburg Primary School | 418 | 387 | 386 | 522 | 394 | 385 | 391 | 389 | ||
| Thomas C Passios Elementary | 355 | |||||||||
| Lunenburg Middle School | 423 | 386 | 363 | 382 | ||||||
| Turkey Hill Elementary School | 373 | 344 | 370 | 356 | ||||||
| Advanced Community Experience Program | 9 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
Every third year shown; schools appear and disappear as the district reorganised them. A blank is a school that did not exist under that name.
- Why any of these counts moved. The file is a headcount and carries no reason.
- How many resident children are educated elsewhere in each year here; that is /where-students-go-instead, from a different DESE file.
- Anything about need or intensity behind the students-with-disabilities count.
What would close these
DESE’s enrollment file carries no reason a count moved; the district’s own October 1 report and its birth-cohort projections would. Every limit on this page is also a row in what we cannot answer, which is the single registry the records request reads from.
dese-enrollment-by-grade.xlsx
Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
Enrollment by grade and selected populations, every Massachusetts district and school, FY1994-FY2026. A headcount on 1 October of the school year. The source of every count here. Stage: published; a count taken on one day
table · 13.4 MB
sha256 a2fb23dea70ce67d…
Every other report
Every analysis this project has written, in one index, is at reports.