Reserve options

lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/topics/reserve-options.json

Six ways to size the reserve run from $90,554 to $412,397; the law caps it at $541,717.

Six ways to size the reserve

	Value
The most the law allows	$541,717
Worst year, at today’s budget	$412,397
Worst two years running	$368,596
Worst year	$223,774
Median bad year, at today’s budget	$121,615
Median bad year, last five	$116,811
Median bad year, all 17	$90,554

Overruns beyond the three special education lines’ budget, FY2010 to FY2026. At today’s budget is our arithmetic.

Which bad years each option would have met

Bad year	Options that met it	Median: $90,554	Median, today: $121,615	Median, last five: $116,811	Worst: $223,774	Worst two: $368,596	Worst, today: $412,397
FY2013, $223,774 over	Met by 3 of 6				●	●	●
FY2019, $204,015 over	Met by 3 of 6				●	●	●
FY2024, $152,724 over	Met by 3 of 6				●	●	●
FY2014, $144,822 over	Met by 3 of 6				●	●	●
FY2026, $140,743 over	Met by 3 of 6				●	●	●
FY2022, $92,879 over	Met by 5 of 6		●	●	●	●	●
FY2011, $90,554 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2015, $65,331 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2012, $39,766 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2016, $37,801 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2025, $20,054 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2010, $18,735 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●
FY2020, $3,811 over	Met by 6 of 6	●	●	●	●	●	●

A mark: that year’s overrun, as spent, fit inside the reserve, assuming it was full when the year began.

What it means: Every option meets the small years; they differ only on the biggest few, and the 3 largest meet every year on record.

Each year’s overrun, as spent

Overrun beyond budgetMedian bad yearMedian, last fiveWorst year

	Overrun beyond budget	Median bad year	Median, last five	Worst year
FY2010	$18,735	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2011	$90,554	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2012	$39,766	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2013	$223,774	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2014	$144,822	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2015	$65,331	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2016	$37,801	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2017	$0	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2018	$0	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2019	$204,015	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2020	$3,811	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2021	$0	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2022	$92,879	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2023	$0	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2024	$152,724	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2025	$20,054	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774
FY2026	$140,743	$90,554	$116,811	$223,774

A bar above a line is a year that size of reserve would not have covered.

Each year’s overrun at today’s budgetour estimate

Overrun, scaled to todayMedian, at today’s budgetWorst year, at today’s budget

	Overrun, scaled to today	Median, at today’s budget	Worst year, at today’s budget
FY2010	$42,264	$121,615	$412,397
FY2011	$186,814	$121,615	$412,397
FY2012	$72,581	$121,615	$412,397
FY2013	$412,397	$121,615	$412,397
FY2014	$231,020	$121,615	$412,397
FY2015	$89,425	$121,615	$412,397
FY2016	$54,359	$121,615	$412,397
FY2017	$0	$121,615	$412,397
FY2018	$0	$121,615	$412,397
FY2019	$297,300	$121,615	$412,397
FY2020	$5,091	$121,615	$412,397
FY2021	$0	$121,615	$412,397
FY2022	$121,615	$121,615	$412,397
FY2023	$0	$121,615	$412,397
FY2024	$196,933	$121,615	$412,397
FY2025	$22,428	$121,615	$412,397
FY2026	$140,743	$121,615	$412,397

Each year’s overrun as a share of its own budget, times $6,209,427. Older years grow most, because the budget was smaller then.

1 · The facts

$90,554
median bad year, FY2010 to FY2026
$121,615
median bad year, at today’s budget
our estimate
$116,811
median bad year, last five years
$223,774
worst year, FY2013
$368,596
worst two years running
$412,397
worst year, at today’s budget
our estimate
$643,417
worst two running, at today’s budget
our estimate
$541,717
the most it may hold: 2% of net school spending
law
$6,209,427
the three lines’ budget, FY2026
6.6%
over budget in FY2013, the worst share

2 · What it shows

1
A median bad year ran $90,554 over; scaled to today’s budget, $121,615; in the last five years, $116,811.
What it means: The three medians differ mostly by how old years are counted; recent years and scaled years agree more closely.
2
The worst year was $223,774 as spent; FY2013 ran 6.6% over, which is $412,397 at today’s budget.
What it means: Whether old overruns count at today’s size nearly doubles the worst case; nothing in the data settles it.
3
At today’s budget the worst two years running come to $643,417, past the $541,717 cap.
What it means: If overruns grow with the budget, no reserve the law allows covers a repeat of the worst stretch.

Reserve or budget →The same money held once, or added to every vote

The six options, and the bad years each would have covered

	Reserve	Bad years covered, as spent	Bad years covered, at today’s budget	How it is measured
Median bad year, all 17	$90,554	7 of 13	6 of 13	the middle of the 13 years that ran over
Median bad year, at today’s budget	$121,615	8 of 13	6 of 13	the same, each year scaled to the FY2026 budget (ours)
Median bad year, last five	$116,811	8 of 13	6 of 13	the middle of 4: FY2022, FY2024, FY2025, FY2026
Worst year	$223,774	13 of 13	10 of 13	FY2013
Worst two years running	$368,596	13 of 13	12 of 13	FY2013 and FY2014
Worst year, at today’s budget	$412,397	13 of 13	13 of 13	FY2013 scaled to the FY2026 budget (ours)

Covered means the year’s overrun, beyond the three lines’ budget as first voted, fit inside the reserve, assuming the reserve was full at the start of the year. At today’s budget, each year’s overrun as a share of its own budget times $6,209,427, the three lines in FY2026: our arithmetic, which assumes overruns grow with the budget.

Which bad years each option would have met

1 · The facts

2 · What it shows

Related

Sources