Analysis: Town and Schools

773 more homes, 319 fewer students

Lunenburg has added single-family homes in every year the state records, FY1994 to FY2026, and the schools have fewer children than they had. Two counts from two state files, and the one thing they cannot say between them is why.

lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/homes-and-students.json

3,645

single-family homes in FY2026, from 2,872 in FY1994

1,568

students in FY2026, from a peak of 1,887 in FY2003

43.0

students for every hundred homes — 61.2 in FY1994

+87

homes in the last five years; students −25

What this report counts

Two COUNTS on two state files: single-family parcels as DLS reports them each fiscal year, and children enrolled in the district on 1 October. Neither is a dollar figure; neither says who lives in a home.

01773more single-family homes, FY1994 to FY2026

773 more single-family homes since FY1994, and 319 fewer students than the FY2003 peak.

Homes rose in every one of the 26 steps in the record. Enrolment has not followed them.

The town has been building. The schools have been shrinking. Both are true in the same years, from two state files that count two different things. Single-family parcels went from 2,872 in FY1994 to 3,645 in FY2026, up 26.9%, and fell in 0 of the 26 year-to-year steps the record holds. Enrolment peaked at 1,887 in FY2003 and stands at 1,568, down 16.9%. The two lines cross the page in opposite directions.

Who is in the schools, FY1994 to today → · Who lives here →

What it rests on Single-family parcels from the DLS average tax bill file, Lunenburg rows, FY1994–FY2026; enrolment from `dese_enrollment`, district rows, total_cnt. DLS’s fiscal year is the tax year and DESE’s is the school year; both FY-labels describe the same autumn and are set side by side on that basis.

What it does not show WHY. Fewer children per home, older households, children choicing out, new homes bought by households without children — this pair of series separates none of them. Nor does the homes count include condominiums or apartments; it is single-family parcels only.

0243.0students per 100 single-family homes, FY2026

43.0 students for every hundred single-family homes in FY2026, against 61.2 in FY1994.

Fewer school-age children for each home than the town had. The fact under every “growth” argument.

Dividing one series by the other gives students per hundred homes: 61.2 in FY1994, 43.0 in FY2026, a fall of 29.7%. It is a ratio of two counts and not a household survey: it does not say which homes hold children.

A third of homes have a child under 18 — the five-year sample →

What it rests on The two series above, divided, year by year.

What it does not show Children per household. The Census publishes households with a child under 18 only as a five-year sample (on /lunenburg-by-the-numbers), so the ratio here is homes to students, not families to children.

03+87single-family homes, FY2021 to FY2026

In the last five years: +87 single-family homes, −25 students.

Building does not read through to enrolment on any horizon this record shows — five years or twenty.

FY2021 to FY2026: single-family parcels 3,558 to 3,645, enrolment 1,593 to 1,568. A new home in Lunenburg has not, on this record, meant a new pupil.

Where Lunenburg’s children go instead → · What commercial growth would have to look like →

What it rests on The same two series, the latest six fiscal years.

What it does not show Whether the homes added were bought by families with children who then enrolled elsewhere — Monty Tech, school choice, private school — which would leave enrolment flat with more children in town. /where-students-go-instead counts residents educated elsewhere and is the place to look.

Those are the answers this report could reach from the documents behind it. If the one you came for is not among them, ask us — no name or email needed.

04235

A new home that brings no pupil pays about $3,959 a year toward the schools; the gap needs about 235 such homes a year and the town adds about 17.

The crisis page prices the average home: about $3,959 a year toward the schools against about $3,961 of school cost, a wash. The question a new subdivision raises is the marginal one, and thirty years of this record say the marginal home has not, on net, added a pupil. On that condition every new home is revenue without cost — and holding the projected $930,273 gap that way takes 235 of them a year at the average value, against the 87 added over the last 5 years. Real money; the wrong order of magnitude, like commercial growth.What it does not show: whether the next home brings a pupil. The record is a town-wide count and a new home with children is invisible in it if an older home loses them the same year.What would change this: the ratio chart below turning up — students per hundred homes rising while homes keep rising. That, and not enrolment alone, is the sign that new homes have started bringing pupils, and the day it appears this finding is withdrawn. It has not appeared in 32 years.

Read the full analysisThe full version2 min

The two lines, FY1994 to FY2026

Homes on the left axis, students on the right; the two are counts of different things and share no scale. A gap in the students line is a year DESE’s file does not carry.

single-family homes
students

Students for every hundred homes

One series divided by the other. A ratio of two counts, not a survey of who lives where.

Every year, as the two files print it

fiscal year	single-family homes	change	students	change	per 100 homes
FY1994	2,872		1,758		61.2
FY1999	3,072	+200	1,830	+72	59.6
FY2002	3,201	+129	1,851	+21	57.8
FY2003	3,249	+48	1,887	+36	58.1
FY2004	3,283	+34	1,830	−57	55.7
FY2005	3,325	+42	1,822	−8	54.8
FY2006	3,362	+37	1,836	+14	54.6
FY2007	3,389	+27	1,844	+8	54.4
FY2008	3,389	+0	1,824	−20	53.8
FY2009	3,413	+24	1,739	−85	51.0
FY2010	3,418	+5	1,702	−37	49.8
FY2011	3,419	+1	1,650	−52	48.3
FY2012	3,426	+7	1,637	−13	47.8
FY2013	3,433	+7	1,587	−50	46.2
FY2014	3,443	+10	1,564	−23	45.4
FY2015	3,451	+8	1,557	−7	45.1
FY2016	3,472	+21	1,567	+10	45.1
FY2017	3,486	+14	1,613	+46	46.3
FY2018	3,514	+28	1,641	+28	46.7
FY2019	3,530	+16	1,649	+8	46.7
FY2020	3,543	+13	1,641	−8	46.3
FY2021	3,558	+15	1,593	−48	44.8
FY2022	3,583	+25	1,597	+4	44.6
FY2023	3,593	+10	1,562	−35	43.5
FY2024	3,625	+32	1,580	+18	43.6
FY2025	3,635	+10	1,563	−17	43.0
FY2026	3,645	+10	1,568	+5	43.0

The peak enrolment year in bold. A change is against the previous year the record holds, which is not always the previous calendar year early in the series.

Why enrolment does not follow homes: children per household, the age of households moving in, and children educated outside the district are three explanations this pair of counts cannot separate.
How many homes of other kinds — condominiums, apartments, two-family — were added; the DLS series is single-family parcels only.
School-age children per household by year. The Census gives it as a five-year sample; the assessors’ records carry no ages.

What would close these

School-age children per household by year — the Census carries it only as a five-year sample, and the district’s own October 1 report by residence would be the like-for-like. Every limit on this page is also a row in what we cannot answer, which is the single registry the records request reads from.

AvgSingleFamTaxBill.xlsx

Massachusetts DOR, Division of Local Services

Every town’s single-family parcels by fiscal year, exported from the DLS Gateway by script. The parcel count is the homes series here.

table Average Single-Family Tax Bill, FY1988–FY2026 · 39 KB

sha256 529481c165e85504…

our copy · the publisher’s

dese-enrollment-by-grade.xlsx

Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education

A headcount on 1 October of the school year. The students series here.

table Enrollment by grade, FY1994–FY2026 · 13.4 MB

sha256 a2fb23dea70ce67d…

our copy · the publisher’s

Every other report

The budget feed — every board, everything about money →What the town is deciding now →The blog — one finding at a time, in two minutes →This week in town — meetings coming up, minutes and recordings just posted →The boards — each one, in one place →Meeting minutes — written from the recordings →Lunenburg by the numbers — who lives here →Lunenburg’s homes and the tax bill →The boards, compared →Youth sports and the fields →The School Committee’s finances — every fund and line it owns →Parks & Recreation — the department, its fund, its sales, its grounds →Health insurance →Free cash — can it fill the gap? →Teacher contracts →School user and athletic fees →Extracurriculars — sports, music and clubs →Classroom positions and class size →Overrides →Commercial development and new growth →Special education — four reports →How many students one special education group may have →The circuit breaker — what the state reimburses for the costliest placements →What other districts spend, for each pupil →What the state requires us to spend — and where that puts us →Chapter 70 — the formula, and why it pays the floor →How Chapter 70 actually works, in eight steps →School staffing — did it go up, and over which years →Who works in each school →The paraprofessionals →What courses actually ran, subject by subject →AP exams — who sits them, in what, and how they score →The cut register — what was announced, and what shows →Funding that stopped →When a grant ends — who picks up the bill →Who is in the schools — enrolment, FY1994 to today →Which grades students leave in →Who leaves Lunenburg schools, and where they go →Monty Tech — the assessment, and what sets it →If students leave — what school choice would cost →What a family actually pays →What sports cost, and who pays →Health insurance — the cost outside the school budget →Budget against reported spending →

Every analysis this project has written, in one index, is at reports.