Analysis: Town and Schools

Can free cash fill the gap?

In a year like this one, about $795k of free cash could go to the schools without breaching the town’s own 5%–7% guideline. That covers next year. It is one-time money against a gap that grows every year, it is the capital plan’s money, and budgeting tighter so less of it appears does not change the arithmetic — it moves the same dollars a year earlier.

lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/model.json

What this report counts

A projection from the town’s certified free cash, its own stated guideline, and the capital plan’s own funding table. Dollars the town has certified and could appropriate; not a prediction of next year’s certification, which depends on what is left unspent.

$795k

a year could go to the schools inside the guideline, in a year like FY2026

0 years

of the gap that covers; by FY28 the gap is $135k beyond it

$2.03M

certified in an ordinary year — 4.0% of the budget, already under the 5% floor, nothing to redirect

1.2×

what free cash gave the capital plan last year, the redirect is that many times over

If you read nothing else

01$795k

Yes, once: about $795k of this year’s $3.35M could go to the schools inside the town’s own guideline, and it covers the FY28 gap of $930k.

The town certified $3.35M, 6.55% of the budget, against a stated aim of 5%–7%. Everything above the floor is $795k. Spend it on the schools and next year is closed. That is a true sentence and it is where most of the argument in town stops.

020 yr

It covers 0 years. The gap is a rate, and by FY28 it is $135k past what the same $795k can reach.

This year was a record: an ordinary year certifies $2.03M, 4.0% of the budget, already below the floor, with nothing to redirect. Even the whole $3.35M, guideline ignored, covers 4 years. Free cash is last year’s underspend; it cannot be counted on, and it cannot grow at 3.2% a year the way the gap does.

031.2×

It is the capital plan’s money: $795k is 1.2× what free cash gave capital last year, and more than that whole share in 7 of the 10 years the plan publishes.

Free cash funded $655k of last year’s $1.23M capital plan. At the redirect, 8 of the plan’s 10 queued projects go unfunded — Adult Activity Center Network Upgrade, Public Safety Controls Upgrade, School Door Security Intercoms at Turkey Hill and Primary, and more. “Available within the guideline” and “available” are not the same sentence.

What this does not show

Whether the capital plan is the right size, or whether any project in it could wait. This page prices what the redirect takes; it does not rank a roof against a teacher. Nor does it predict next year’s certification: free cash is what was left unspent, and this year’s $2.46M of underspending was 2.5× the recent average.

Read the arithmetic, and the question as putThe full version2 min

“Can we budget tighter so less goes to free cash?”

Free cash is money the town appropriated and did not spend, plus revenue above the estimate, certified the following July. Budgeting closer to the bone this year means less is certified next year — and the same dollars, appropriated to the schools directly instead of arriving as free cash a year later. It is not a different pot. It is the same pot, seen a year earlier, and it is still one year’s worth. The gap grows 3.2% a year whichever year the money is counted in.

What tighter budgeting does change is the cushion. Local receipts have beaten the estimate in every one of the years on record here (the measurement is on the free cash report); a tighter estimate is a real choice, and its cost is a year in which they do not.

What the redirect covers, year by year

year	the gap	$795k a year covers	short by
FY28	$930,273	85%	$135,401
FY29	$1,530,474	52%	$735,602
FY30	$2,197,945	36%	$1,403,073
FY31	$2,938,165	27%	$2,143,293
FY32	$3,757,043	21%	$2,962,171
FY33	$4,660,955	17%	$3,866,083

What it takes from

year	capital plan	of it from free cash
FY2017	$619,475	$250,000 (40%)
FY2018	$633,317	$290,019 (46%)
FY2019	$1,455,214	$215,736 (15%)
FY2020	$1,684,100	$582,732 (35%)
FY2021	$1,142,213	$647,880 (57%)
FY2022	$1,597,825	$804,041 (50%)
FY2023	$2,162,849	$983,034 (45%)
FY2024	$1,039,010	$467,269 (45%)
FY2025	$1,317,120	$1,016,722 (77%)
FY2026	$1,225,000	$655,424 (54%)

Who pays

The capital plan: the roof, the cruiser, the bridge that were next in the queue. About $594k of it is restricted money that could not move anyway; the $1.24M that could is what the redirect competes with. And, in a year that is not a record, nobody — because there is nothing above the floor to move.

What it does not do

It does not change the rate. Costs grow 3.2% a year and the levy 2.5%; a one-time appropriation, however large, leaves both where they were, and the same gap is back the next spring plus growth. The two things that change the rate are on health insurance and the teacher contracts.

What would settle it: the Town Accountant’s free cash certification for 1 July 27 (the next one), which says whether this year’s record repeats; and the capital plan’s adopted FY28 funding table, which says what a redirect would actually displace.

Is the town hoarding free cash, or rebuilding it? →The measurement this page draws on.Every option, side by side →Priced the same way, to five years and ten.The crisis page →Why it is a rate problem, in five numbers.

Every other report

The budget feed — every board, everything about money →What the town is deciding now →The blog — one finding at a time, in two minutes →This week in town — meetings coming up, minutes and recordings just posted →The boards — each one, in one place →Meeting minutes — written from the recordings →Lunenburg by the numbers — who lives here →Lunenburg’s homes and the tax bill →Homes and students — the town builds, the schools do not grow →The boards, compared →Youth sports and the fields →The School Committee’s finances — every fund and line it owns →Parks & Recreation — the department, its fund, its sales, its grounds →Health insurance →Teacher contracts →School user and athletic fees →Extracurriculars — sports, music and clubs →Classroom positions and class size →Overrides →Commercial development and new growth →Special education — four reports →How many students one special education group may have →The circuit breaker — what the state reimburses for the costliest placements →What other districts spend, for each pupil →What the state requires us to spend — and where that puts us →Chapter 70 — the formula, and why it pays the floor →How Chapter 70 actually works, in eight steps →School staffing — did it go up, and over which years →Who works in each school →The paraprofessionals →What courses actually ran, subject by subject →AP exams — who sits them, in what, and how they score →The cut register — what was announced, and what shows →Funding that stopped →When a grant ends — who picks up the bill →Who is in the schools — enrolment, FY1994 to today →Which grades students leave in →Who leaves Lunenburg schools, and where they go →Monty Tech — the assessment, and what sets it →If students leave — what school choice would cost →What a family actually pays →What sports cost, and who pays →Health insurance — the cost outside the school budget →Budget against reported spending →

Every analysis this project has written, in one index, is at reports.