Analysis: Town and Schools

Commercial development is real money and the wrong order of magnitude

What “grow our way out of it” would have to look like: $121.56M of new commercial value a year, every year, against a town whose best year on record added $43.11M of new value of every kind — and the schools keep 53¢ of each new dollar.

lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/commercial-base.json

Today71 buildings’ worthYear 1+40Year 2+40Year 3+40Year 4+40Year 5+40

Each building is one typical Lunenburg development, about $3.00M of assessed value in the model’s own mix. The white cluster on the left is everything commercial, industrial and personal the town has today — about 71 of them. Each cluster to its right is one year of what would have to be added to hold the gap for five years: about 40 a year, 200 in all. A projection, drawn to count; the layout is invented.

What this report counts

A projection from the town’s tax-base records as the state certifies them — new growth and value by class through FY2026, and the model’s archetype values for what one development is worth. Dollars of assessed value, not buildings that exist. Nothing here says whether any of it will happen.

$121.56M

of new commercial value a year to hold the gap for five years — 40 developments a year, one every 9 days

53¢

of each new-growth dollar reaches the schools; the rest is the town’s

$43.11M

of new value, all classes, in the most Lunenburg has ever added in one year (FY2024)

5.4×

today’s build rate, sustained for ever, to hold the whole projection from this side alone

If you read nothing else

01$121.56M

Growth alone is not a solution: holding the gap for just five years takes $121.56M of new commercial value a year — about 40 developments a year, 202 over the five.

That is 57% of everything commercial, industrial and personal the town has today, added again every year. The best year on record added $43.11M of new value of every kind, residential included. Broken into the model’s own mix of a “typical Lunenburg development” it is 346 buildings in five years, on 234 business parcels today.

0253¢

The schools keep 53¢ of each new-growth dollar, so against the school gap a development is worth about half what it looks.

New growth goes to the town’s levy, and the schools get their share of what the town collects — 53% of it. And the housing half: the average home pays about $3,959 a year toward schools and brings about $3,961 of school cost, a wash — but the town's own record says a new home has not, on net, brought a pupil; what that is worth is on Homes and students.

035.4×

To hold the whole projection by building alone, the town would have to build 5.4× as fast as today, for ever — and a decade passes before it shows.

A fixed number of dollars of new growth each year is a shrinking share of a growing town, which is why 3.23% drifts back toward the 2.5% cap. Holding the projection for 12 years from this side alone takes 5.4 times today’s build rate — $149.35M a year, 70% of the commercial base; for thirty years, 9.8 times. It is the only lever on the revenue side the town owns, and it is a decade’s work before it shows.

013.3times the FY2013–FY2023 pace of non-residential new growth

Non-residential new growth ran 3.3 times its prior eleven-year pace in FY2024–FY2026.

$19,421,113 a year against $5,803,101: the three best years for building that is not housing on record.

New growth is what the assessors certify was added to the tax rolls, valued, and the state publishes it split residential against all classes. Total minus residential is building that is not housing. The three largest years in the record are FY2024, FY2025, FY2026; FY2024 alone added $23,162,670. The recent three-year average is 3.3 times the eleven-year average before it.

What commercial growth would have to look like → · Try it: the growth dials →

What it rests on DLS new growth file, Lunenburg rows: total new growth value minus residential new growth value, by fiscal year. Averages over FY2024–FY2026 and the eleven years before them.

What it does not show WHAT was built, or where. The file carries a dollar of certified value and no parcel, permit or project. Nor whether the pace holds: three years is the whole of the step. And personal property (equipment, utility plant) is inside the non-residential figure with the buildings.

Those are the answers this report could reach from the documents behind it. If the one you came for is not among them, ask us — no name or email needed.

Set beside the plan: the five-year figure above is 6.3× the FY2024–FY2026 pace of non-residential building — the best three years the state has on record for this town. Real, and the wrong order of magnitude, is a measurement here rather than a slogan.

What this does not show

Whether any of this is buildable. The model prices assessed value; it does not know the zoning, the sewer capacity or the market, and the town’s own planning documents name the constraint: Commercial development clusters where municipal sewer reaches, which is why the same three corridors come up in every economic development conversation. It does not say development is a bad idea — it says what size of idea it is.

Read the full analysisThe full version6 min

What one “development” means here

The model’s unit is $3,005,000 of new assessed value — a mix, not one building type, because that is what actually gets built. So 40 a year is, in real buildings:

Small shop or office$1,200,000 each35.5 a year
Restaurant$900,000 each20.3 a year
Retail plaza$4,000,000 each4.6 a year
Self-storage facility$3,000,000 each4.1 a year
Light industrial or warehouse$7,000,000 each2.6 a year
Solar array, about 5 MW$5,000,000 each2.4 a year

That is 346 new commercial buildings over five years. Lunenburg has 234 commercial properties today, worth $212.34M in total — accumulated over the whole life of the town. This asks for very nearly that many again, in five years, one every 9 days.

It would take commercial property from 9% of the town’s value to 27%. And it has somewhere to go or it does not happen: commercial development clusters where municipal sewer reaches, which is why the same three corridors come up in every economic development conversation.

The five-year plan, in buildings

$121.56M a year is a number nobody can picture, and it reads as painless because nobody’s pay is cut to get it. In the model’s own mix it is this, every year for five years:

building	assessed value each	a year	over five years
Small shop or office	$1,200,000	35.5	177
Restaurant	$900,000	20.3	101
Retail plaza	$4,000,000	4.6	23
Light industrial or warehouse	$7,000,000	2.6	13
Self-storage facility	$3,000,000	4.1	20
Solar array, about 5 MW	$5,000,000	2.4	12
All of it		40.5	346

Done, it takes the business share of the town’s tax base from 8.7% to 26.9% and the commercial base to 3.86 times what it is today. The corridors the town’s own planning names for it: Route 2A (Massachusetts Avenue), Route 13 (Chase Road), Leominster-Shirley Road and Route 70, near Fitchburg/Leominster sewer. The one building type big enough to shortcut this is a distribution center (150k sq ft), and the model’s own note on it: Not realistic for Lunenburg — no site, sewer or market for it

What the state’s record says about the base

02$39,440,598of commercial and industrial value added, FY2022 to FY2026

Business property value: +$39,440,598 in four years to FY2026, +$37,084,402 in the 20 before.

Up 40% in four years after 59% over 20. Part built, part revalued; this series cannot split them.

Commercial plus industrial assessed value: $62,702,200 in FY2002, $99,786,602 in FY2022, $139,227,200 in FY2026. Personal property is left out here because it is equipment and utility plant, not buildings.

The report this feeds →

What it rests on DLS assessed values by class, Lunenburg rows, commercial plus industrial, as printed.

What it does not show How much of the step is construction and how much is the assessors revaluing what stood. The new-growth series above is the part that was built; the rest of the step is revaluation, and the two are not reconciled here.

What the town has actually added, year by year

New growth as the assessors certified it, FY2003 to FY2026: the value added to the rolls each year, split between housing and everything else. The five-year plan above asks for $121.56M of commercial value a year; the bars are the same unit, and the best year is FY2024.

residential
everything else

year	added to the levy	value, all classes	of which not housing
FY2003	$314,966	$20,190,107	$1,054,607
FY2004	$341,785	$26,050,700	$2,267,000
FY2005	$452,710	$31,881,000	$890,500
FY2006	$325,484	$24,399,133	$2,275,033
FY2007	$295,074	$23,809,803	$1,119,603
FY2008	$211,735	$17,455,441	$1,766,341
FY2009	$138,168	$11,297,476	$5,223,376
FY2010	$130,170	$9,982,315	$3,885,315
FY2011	$188,732	$13,291,045	$5,307,245
FY2012	$448,111	$27,729,619	$2,477,150
FY2013	$321,862	$19,124,255	$4,061,355
FY2014	$297,571	$17,200,564	$2,535,264
FY2015	$262,484	$14,590,507	$4,757,607
FY2016	$360,856	$19,697,381	$2,691,081
FY2017	$487,955	$24,883,011	$3,807,111
FY2018	$481,496	$24,098,920	$8,298,520
FY2019	$472,536	$23,986,590	$9,511,270
FY2020	$366,231	$19,605,489	$10,303,130
FY2021	$308,732	$17,038,185	$8,183,210
FY2022	$430,254	$24,253,330	$5,918,680
FY2023	$234,383	$13,634,891	$3,766,880
FY2024	$630,220	$43,106,729	$23,162,670
FY2025	$527,289	$37,396,296	$18,010,210
FY2026	$518,650	$36,117,700	$17,090,460

The base by class, FY2002 to FY2026

Assessed value, as certified each year. A revaluation moves these lines as much as a building does, which is why the chart above — what was added — is the one that says what got built. Business’s share of the whole is the thin line on the right axis.

business value
residential value
business share

Business’s share of the base in FY2026, the towns this project compares Lunenburg with: Ayer 28.4%, Littleton 21.2%, Fitchburg 18.4%, Leominster 17.1%, Gardner 15.2%, Lancaster 12.3%, Westford 9.6%, Shirley 9.5%, Lunenburg 8.7%, Townsend 6.9%, Ashby 5.7%, Stow 5.3%, Pepperell 5.2%, Bolton 4.7%, Groton 4.5%, Harvard 3.9%. A share, so it compares across towns of different size; it says nothing about what any of them collects.

The latest certified step by class, FY2025 to FY2026 — a revaluation moves these as much as a building does, which is why the new-growth table above is the one to read for building:

Commercial: $97,763,006 → $101,060,600 (+337.0%)
Industrial: $32,625,700 → $38,166,600 (+1698.0%)
Personal property: $69,258,000 → $73,115,940 (+557.0%)

What was built. The state certifies a dollar of new value per class and year; the town’s building permits and the assessors’ new-growth worksheets name the parcels, and neither is in the archive.
How much of the rise in commercial value since FY2022 is construction and how much revaluation; new growth is the built part and the remainder is not reconciled to it here.
Whether the FY2024–FY2026 pace continues. Three years is the whole of the step.

What would close these

The assessors’ new-growth worksheets for FY2024–FY2026, which list the parcels behind each year’s certified figure, would say what was built and where. Every limit on this page is also a row in what we cannot answer, which is the single registry the records request reads from.

assessedvalues.xlsx

Massachusetts DOR, Division of Local Services

Every class of property, every year, as certified. How big the base is.

table Assessed Values by Class, FY2002–FY2026 · 43 KB

sha256 a15a81c7d1acb7dc…

our copy · the publisher’s

new_growth.xlsx

Massachusetts DOR, Division of Local Services

What the assessors certified was added each year, residential and all classes. What got built.

table New Growth, residential and total, FY2003–FY2026 · 38 KB

sha256 41bbb8deb4cda424…

our copy · the publisher’s

Try it yourself

The board at Development has the dials — set a commercial build rate and a housing rate and watch what each does to the gap. The same arithmetic, the same model; this page is the settled reading of it.

The wider argument — why an amount cannot fix a rate problem, and which lines can — is on the crisis page; the options side by side are on Solutions.

Every other report

The budget feed — every board, everything about money →What the town is deciding now →The blog — one finding at a time, in two minutes →This week in town — meetings coming up, minutes and recordings just posted →The boards — each one, in one place →Meeting minutes — written from the recordings →Lunenburg by the numbers — who lives here →Lunenburg’s homes and the tax bill →Homes and students — the town builds, the schools do not grow →The boards, compared →Youth sports and the fields →The School Committee’s finances — every fund and line it owns →Parks & Recreation — the department, its fund, its sales, its grounds →Health insurance →Free cash — can it fill the gap? →Teacher contracts →School user and athletic fees →Extracurriculars — sports, music and clubs →Classroom positions and class size →Overrides →Special education — four reports →How many students one special education group may have →The circuit breaker — what the state reimburses for the costliest placements →What other districts spend, for each pupil →What the state requires us to spend — and where that puts us →Chapter 70 — the formula, and why it pays the floor →How Chapter 70 actually works, in eight steps →School staffing — did it go up, and over which years →Who works in each school →The paraprofessionals →What courses actually ran, subject by subject →AP exams — who sits them, in what, and how they score →The cut register — what was announced, and what shows →Funding that stopped →When a grant ends — who picks up the bill →Who is in the schools — enrolment, FY1994 to today →Which grades students leave in →Who leaves Lunenburg schools, and where they go →Monty Tech — the assessment, and what sets it →If students leave — what school choice would cost →What a family actually pays →What sports cost, and who pays →Health insurance — the cost outside the school budget →Budget against reported spending →

Every analysis this project has written, in one index, is at reports.